Research News
Covid-19: death rate is 0.66% and increases with age, study estimates
BMJ 2020; 369 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1327 (Published 01 April 2020) Cite this as: BMJ 2020;369:m1327
The overall death rate from covid-19 has been estimated at 0.66%, rising sharply to 7.8% in people aged over 80 and declining to 0.0016% in children aged 9 and under.1
The estimates, calculated by researchers in the UK, used aggregate data on cases and deaths in mainland China. Unlike other estimates, however, they adjusted for undiagnosed cases and the number of people in each age group of a population.
The team found that nearly one in five people over 80 infected with covid-19 would probably require hospital admission, compared with around 1% of people under 30.
They also estimated that the average time between a person displaying symptoms and dying was 17.8 days, while recovering from the disease was estimated to take slightly longer, with patients being discharged from hospital after an average of 22.6 days.
The paper, published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases and funded by the UK Medical Research Council, analysed data from 3665 covid-19 cases in mainland China to estimate the admission rate among different age groups.
It reported that 0.04% of 10-19 year olds would probably require hospital care—as would 1.0% of people in their 20s, 3.4% of people aged 30-39, 4.3% aged 40-49, 8.2% aged 50-59, 11.8% in their 60s, 16.6% in their 70s, and 18.4% of those over 80.
Source: Ref. 4; Ref. 1; Nature analysis based on Ref. 2
GP: Question: So why lockdown everyone? Take precautions for the elderly and those at risk. Open the schools and open the economy. Give prophylactic protocols to teachers and medical personnel to guard them against the virus.
