Abstract
In this paper, we analyze excess mortality in Israel during the COVID-19 crisis, focusing on the age group of young adults under 50 years of age, as their susceptibility to COVID-19 mortality is low. Based primarily on online data from the Central Bureau of Statistics of Israel, we observed an unexpected rise of excess mortality among 20 to 49-year-olds in February-March 2021. It should be noted that excess mortality peaks among these young age groups are rarely observed, with low number of deaths that are usually caused by wars. We examined whether COVID-19 could account for this excess mortality. The inconsistency between the reported COVID-19 deaths and the excess deaths within this age group led to consider other potential causes: accident and vaccination. Indeed, the surge in mortality coincided with the rollout of the Israeli vaccination campaign for the 20 sto 49-year-olds, which reached more than 75% of individuals in this age group. This unexpected rise in excess mortality among young adults was also found in two other countries, the United Kingdom and Hungary, which have in common with Israel a massive vaccination of their populations. Thus, our observations should prompt to pause the campaign, while clarifying the underlying reasons for those excess deaths, especially in the context of a low mortality risk from COVID-19 within adults under 50 years of age.
Discussion
Surges in mortality among young people are very rare events, and are usually associated with wars, such as the peak of excess mortality during the Hamas/Israel war in July 2014. The mortality peak among 20 to 49-year-olds in February-March 2021 is therefore unprecedented and indeed concerning. After eliminating accidents, such as the Meron tragedy, the unusual event which took place within this timeframe was the fact that a very high percentage of Israelis aged of 20–49 years received two doses of Comirnaty mRNA injection.
Our additional observation supporting this possible link between vaccination and youth mortality is the fact that common patterns of excess mortality were also observed in Hungary and England & Wales, which have in common with Israel a massive vaccination of their populations. The recent research by Retsef Levi [4] documenting a 20 to 35% increase in cardiac arrests among the Israelis aged 16–49 from Jan-May 2019–2020 to Jan-May 2021 and the established link between the Pfizer vaccine and myocarditis [5]/autoimmune diseases [6] in young adults further lend a physiological support. Such accumulation of concern should, in our view, urgently prompt a pause in the vaccination campaign, until the reasons of the youth excess mortality observed in mass vaccination countries are clarified.
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