Unprecedented Pandemic Turnaround in Uttar Pradesh with Dramatic Decline in Cases

The health authorities for the state of Uttar Pradesh are easing up on COVID-19-based restrictions, at least in zones of the state where SARS-CoV-2 infections now fall below 600 cases. Just how big of a turnaround is the situation there? Well, for much of February and March of 2021, the average number of cases ranged from 100 to 350 in the most populated state of India with over 220 million people (if Uttar Pradesh was a nation, it would be sixth in the world, beating Brazil). That situation changed with the second pandemic wave here, which as TrialSite’s analysis suggests, started with a potent mutant variant in combination with migrant labor’s fear of imminent urban lockdowns, triggering migration and hence rapid viral spread. So by March 19, the state had 380 cases and the numbers of newly infected cases skyrocketed to 37,944 cases on April 24 alone, just over a month later. The state was already offering ivermectin as part of a population-wide regimen but the health authorities there doubled down their efforts as India’s national COVID-19 guidelines introduced ivermectin just days before. What has happened since is nothing short of amazing, but unfortunately attracts little media attention outside of India. Just as fast as new cases materialized so has the decline thanks in part to a coordinated public health strategy that includes proactive testing, home visits, and medication kits that include ivermectin. As of May 29, the number of estimated new cases declined to 2,014 representing perhaps the steepest decline of new cases, and hence the fastest positive turnaround of any nation, anywhere, but the curve looks similar to what occurred in Zimbabwe and other places that instituted a population health scheme involving home care and therapy such as ivermectin. Now thanks to this dramatic turnaround, authorities here can ease up pandemic restrictions in zones with under 600 new cases recorded daily.

As TrialSite recently reported, the State’s Health Department, led by Dr. Anshul Pareek, General Medical and Health Services, became the first state across India to declare ivermectin in a large-scale prophylactic program with a focus on 1) close contacts of COVID-19 patients, 2) health workers, and 3) general care of COVID-19 patients.

Pareek and team started the effort in Agra, observing markedly successful results. Those findings led the state government to accept the use of the regimen for all COVID-19 patients and, over time, established the optimal dosages for COVID-19 patients.

TrialSite again shared that the rate continues to decline in an unprecedented turnaround. Similar observations are in Mexico, Bangladesh, and even countries such as Zimbabwe where ivermectin is in use widely to fight off COVID-19. Of course, there is no meta-study authoritatively proving the complete correlation but the real-world data most certainly is candidly observable. Why aren’t other health authorities and media discussing this? Is it not newsworthy?

Note that less than 2 million have been vaccinated in Uttar Pradesh yet this remarkable turnaround has happened nonetheless. The state still seeks vaccinations; and therapy such as ivermectin, not authorized or recommended other than in clinical trials in many parts of the world, is used in conjunction with vaccination and other public health measures during pandemic times. The World Health Organization recently showcased the incredible progress here yet omitted the fact that ivermectin was a centerpiece of the strategy. This is blatant repression of vital information amounting to censorship due to a confluence of factors and forces, including economic considerations cloaked in an antiquated paradigm of finding the perfect evidence in the midst of the worst pandemic in a century, lacking any use of real-world data.